Prediction by proposed model more accurate than GM models. Relative error smallest for proposed model. Cholera Chabahar District, Iran Monthly and Seasonal average values of Cholera incidents and Climate variables temperature, humidity, rainfalldistance from border and health centres.

They correctly concluded that use of the log-binomial model is the correct method for estimating the relative risk in studies with common outcomes, which was the conclusion of Skov et al. They discussed possible convergence problems with the log-binomial model but did not give any definite solution.

When estimating the relative risk using the log-binomial model, there is a restriction on the parameter space. Hence, the maximum likelihood solution might be on the boundary of the parameter space. This frequently happens for continuous covariates if the outcome is very prevalent and the relation is strong 4.

Requiring additional iterations will not solve this problem. For the expanded data set, the solution should no longer be on the boundary of the parameter space, and standard software will find the solution, which will be close to the solution for the original data.

The standard error is then adjusted for the increase in sample size by multiplying by the square root of c. Use of the Poisson regression model 1 will result in exactly the same estimates and standard errors as use of the Cox regression model as recommended by Lee 5.

The latter method has been used by many researchers lately. Both of these models seem unusual for estimation of the prevalence ratio. The Cox model was designed for survival analysis studies, and the Poisson regression model was designed for analyzing Poisson random variables, not binomial random variables, although the Poisson distribution would be expected to be a good approximation to the binomial distribution for large samples.

It is commonly believed that the log-binomial model has the disadvantage that it could result in a probability estimate greater than 1. However, by definition, the maximum likelihood estimates for the log-binomial model cannot result in estimated probabilities greater than 1 for covariate values within the original data set.

This should be contrasted with the use of the Cox model 5which does not estimate probabilities because it does not have an intercept in the model.

The Poisson model, which has exactly the same estimated slope parameters as the Cox model plus an intercept, can be used to estimate probabilities. Since the mean value of a Poisson random variable can be greater than 1, the estimated probabilities may be greater than 1 even for covariate values in the original data set.

This happens in the example presented by Deddens et al. The data are shown in table 1and the estimates obtained are shown in table 2.

In conclusion, we believe that the log-binomial model is the natural model for estimating prevalence ratios. Any convergence problems are solved using the COPY method 4.

An example with the solution on the boundary of the parameter space X.Paper applications that are submitted without a copy of the signed waiver from the Director of the DGM will not be reviewed or considered for funding. The applicant will be notified via email of this decision by the Grants Management Officer of the DGM.

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